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兴业证券-唐人神-002567-Pig Farming Registers Performance Growth, Production Capacity Accelerates to Expand-

上传日期:2020-07-31 18:28:00  研报作者:陈娇,毛一凡  分享者:737871908   收藏研报
格式:   pdf 大小:   645K
页数:   共5页 来源:   兴业证券
类型:   公司调研 > 农林牧渔行业 评级:   增持
个股:   唐人神(002567)
条款:
 

【研究报告内容摘要】

(以下内容从兴业证券《Pig Farming Registers Performance Growth, Production Capacity Accelerates to Expand》研报附件原文摘录)
  唐人神(002567)
  Company Profile
  TANGRENSHEN GROUP CO., LTD is a China-based company principally engaged in feed, meat,breeding, boar and acquisition investment businesses. The Company provides feed products for pigs,poultry and fish under the brand of Luotuo. The Company breeds and sells pigs under the brand ofMeishen. The Company is also involved in the research and development, processing and sale of meatproducts under the brand of Tangrenshen. The Company operates its businesses mainly in domesticmarket. (Source: Reuters)
  Event
  TANGRENSHEN GROUP (the company) published its H120 financial report, stating that it hit CNY7.896 billion in revenue, up 8.54% year on year (YoY); its net profit attributable to shareholders camein at CNY 432 million, rocketing 859.06% YoY; its net profit after deducting non-recurring items stoodat CNY 420 million, an increase of 616.74% from a year earlier.
  Comments
  The pork prices hovered at high regions and the pig farming segment posted performance growth.
  In the first half of the year, the company’s sold 280,000 hogs, down 44.9% YoY but the hog slaughterup month over month (MoM).
  It is estimated that the number of hog slaughter will be 130,000, with the average price of CNY34.7/kg, the average weight of 130kg/hog, the complete cost of CNY 22/kg, and the average profit ofCNY 1,660/hog, and the hogs will contribute CNY 210 million in profit.
  The number of piglet slaughter is estimated to be 150,000 with the average profit of CNY 1,450/piglet, and the piglets will contribute CNY 220 in profit.
  The pig farming segment will hit CNY 430 million in profit overall.
  The feed products for poultry boomed while feed products for pigs awaited a rebound. The sales volume of feed products in H120 was 2.3435 million tons (+4.5% YoY), the income fromfeed products sales was CNY 6.73 billion (+3.25% YoY), and its gross margin recorded 7.76% (-0.87pctYoY).
  In terms of feed products for pigs, the hog production capacity in the southern China began to reducefrom June-July and the overall recovery pace was slower than that of the northern China. The salesvolume of feed products for pigs in H120 is estimated to be 600,000 tons, down roughly 30% YoY.
  Benefitted from the rising poultry inventory, the company’s sales volume of feed products for poultryis estimated to be 1.55 million tons, up 27% YoY.
  In addition, the sales volume of aquatic products was 90,000 tons, flat with a year earlier.
  The feed products segment is estimated to contribute CNY 100 million in profit, keeping a steadygrowth.
  Additionally, the expenses of the headquarter registered CNY 100 million.
  The production capacity increased rapidly, laying a foundation for the full industrial chain development.
  The company rolled out “1+3” full industrial chain bases for hogs in regions including Lufeng inYunnan Province, Tianshui in Gansu Province, Ya’an in Sichuang Province and Zhuzhou in HunanProvince, rapidly expanding the production capacity of hogs.
  As of June-end, the company’s fixed asset was CNY 2.578 billion (+12.47% YoY), the projects inconstruction recorded CNY 737 million (+84.16% YoY), and the productive biological asset registeredCNY 286 million (+183.47% YoY).
  The sow inventory at the end of June totaled 98,000, up 23% from the first quarter and 31% from thebeginning of the year. The number of reproductive sows was 72,000.
  B ased on the production capacity plan, the sales volume of hogs will reach 1.3 million-1.5 million and2.6 million in 2020 and 2021.
  The company rolled out business in terminal consumption and meat products will embracedevelopment opportunities.
  Impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the catering consumption shifted to household-orientedconsumption, the company ramped up efforts to increase sales through supermarkets and chains andcooperated with well-known livestream anchors in a bid to sell more products. The deep processingmeat products realized CNY 179 million in revenue, a surge of 46.1% from a year earlier. However,impacted by the decline in pig slaughtering, the overall income of the meat products segment wasCNY 334 million, down 39.31% YoY, contributing CNY 10 million in profit as estimated.
  In addition, the company has successfully operated a catering brand and planned to expand 5,000chains in the upcoming 10 years.
  The company has carried out business for multiple years in the meat products, boasting strongerchannels in Hunan Province.
  Earnings forecast and investment recommendation
  As the hog production capacity recovers slowly, the overall supply was tight, making pork prices in theoff season gain more-than-expected rise. The full-year pork prices are expected to hover at higher regions and the company’s performance will continuously improve.
  We revised its EPS to be CNY 1.93/ CNY 1.96/ CNY 1.90 for 2020/2021/2022, based on the closingprice on July 24th 2020, implying a P/E ratio to be 5.9x/5.8x/6.0x. Reiterate “Outperform”.
  Potential risks
  pork prices fluctuations; the epidemic outbreak; policies changes; price hike in raw materials 报告详细内容请下载附件查看
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